Let me start straight away by quoting a line from Golmaal Returns,
'Kisi ki bhi dilse maarni chaho, toh poori kaynaath uski maarne tumhaari madad karti hai'
1) Ghajini is sandwiched between two huge movies Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi and Chandni Chowk To China which are releasing on 3500 and 2800 prints respectively when compared to the 2000 prints on which Ghajini is releasing.
2) Ghajini never stands a chance in the overseas market, because it is a remake of a flop Hollywood movie Momento.
3) None of Aamir Khan's movies have been huge successes in the overseas market. Getting nominated for Oscar's and becoming a commercial hit are two different stories. Lagaan was a flop in the overseas market.
4) Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi has a Punjabi flavour in it so it is expected to take north India by storm. And in Central India and South India, the name of SRK is enough to sell a movie. And if Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi turns out to be a hit( which it is expected), then it would adversely affect the fortunes of Ghajini.
5) Ghajini has already been dubbed and released in all south Indian languages and the release of Ghajini coincides with the release of Nagarjuna starrer 'King' and Nagarjuna is much bigger than Aamir Khan in the south. So the novelty attached to Ghajini is over.
6) SRK and Akshay Kumar are much bigger brands than Aamir Khan in the overseas market. So the name of Aamir Khan can't sell his movie. According to the film critic Taran Adarsh, SRK occupies the first eight positions in the most saleable Indian actors in the overseas market, with Rajnikanth at the ninth position and Akshay Kumar at the tenth position.
7) According to the first promo of Ghajini, it has 'Mithun styled' action sequences like 10 people flying away with a single punch of Aamir Khan. This kind of action might have few takers because Bollywood has already graduated to the Dhoom 2 and Don type of action.
8) All the premier single screen theatres of India have been booked by Yashraj for three weeks. That leaves Ghajini with very few options.
9) Now a days the most important aspect of movies is marketing. And SRK is marketing Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi himself and UTV movies(the producers of Ghajini) are no SRK.
10) Even if Ghajini manages to get off a good start it would be only for a couple of weeks before Chandni Chowk To China releases and eats into Ghajini's business. Same cant be said for Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi because Ghajini can't compete with Rab Ne in Overseas, in North India and the Mumbai terrorities.
P.S:- It would be a miracle if Ghajini becomes a hit. Miracles do happen and I believe in miracles. But a Super Hit or Blockbuster status for Ghajini is ruled out.
